Montana Tornado Odds Now Climb as Storm Season Shifts

BUTTE, MT - Montana: land of big skies, wide plains, and... tornadoes?

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It might sound like the pitch for a low-budget disaster movie, but recent events have some Montanans asking whether our windswept landscapes could be in for more than just scenic breezes.

With rare tornadoes already making appearances in areas not historically known for such violent storms, the question looms:

Is Montana’s tornado risk rising?

A Quiet Tornado State... Until Now

Historically, Montana doesn’t make headlines for tornadic activity.

On average, the state sees around 10 tornadoes per year, according to NOAA data, and most are weak (EF0 or EF1).

Compare that to Oklahoma or Kansas, and we look like a gentle breeze. But something unusual is happening.

In May 2024, a rare EF2 tornado touched down near Denton, Montana, in Fergus County.

It ripped up trees, mangled outbuildings, and reminded rural residents just how unpredictable Mother Nature can be.

Years ago, another tornado was spotted near Baker, with these storms catching residents and meteorologists by surprise.

Then came June 2025, when a funnel cloud was spotted forming ominously over the Little Belt Mountains—a sight so rare that storm chasers from neighboring states flocked in for photos.

While it never touched down, the visual was enough to set local social media ablaze.

Climate Change and the "Tornado Alley Shift"

Some scientists believe what’s happening in Montana—and other northern states like Minnesota and Wisconsin—is part of a larger shift in tornado activity.

According to data from the National Centers of Environmental Information (NCEI), tornado frequency is gradually moving north and east, with states previously on the fringes now seeing more tornado-prone conditions. Factors include rising temperatures, increased humidity, and shifting jet streams.

Could Montana become part of the new Tornado Alley?

It’s too early to say for sure. But meteorologists are watching closely.

How Prepared Is Montana?

Let’s be honest: most Montanans don’t have a tornado plan (myself very much included).

We’re prepared for blizzards, wildfires, and the occasional bear in the backyard. But when sirens blare and skies turn green, many residents are caught off guard.

Some counties, like Yellowstone and Cascade, have begun updating emergency protocols and encouraging residents to build storm kits—a move that would’ve seemed like overkill just a decade ago.

Should You Be Worried?

Here’s the truth: tornadoes in Montana are still rare. But they’re not impossible. And if weather patterns continue to shift the way some researchers suggest, we may see more of them in the years ahead.

So no, it’s not time to build a bunker. But it might be time to brush up on tornado safety, just in case.

Because in Montana, the weather has always had a mind of its own — and lately, it seems to be learning a few new tricks.