Is Montana Getting Dumber? See What The Data Says

BUTTE, MT - If you had to bet on whether Montana is getting dumber or not, which side would you choose?

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That question is bound to turn heads. It sounds outrageous but we’re here to get to the bottom of it, as fairly and as balanced as possible. There won't be any insults to mass intelligence, nor sensationalist claims regarding such found here... yet.

With all the data out there—graduation rates, test scores, literacy stats—you might think the answer would be obvious. That's what we thought until we started peeling through all of the data.

Take a look for yourself.

Education Rates

We decided to start with this question: are Montana kids making it out of high school at the same rate as before? Turns out, they are.

According to the Montana Office of Public Instruction, the state's high school graduation rate has remained relatively stable over the past decade, hovering around 85%. This rate is close to the national average, suggesting no significant decline in educational completion at the secondary level.

Now, you might be wondering, “Okay, but what about college?" Data from the National Center for Education Statistics indicates that college enrollment in Montana has seen minor fluctuations but no drastic decreases. As of the latest data, approximately 60% of high school graduates in Montana pursue higher education. Degree completion rates have also remained consistent, with about 50% of enrolled students obtaining a bachelor's degree within six years.

Summed Up: If Montanans are getting dumber (which most appear not to be), they’re doing it with a diploma in hand. So far, so good!

Test Scores

If there’s one thing we love to hate, it’s standardized tests. ACT, SAT, POS—whatever you call them, they’re still considered to be one of the most reliable ways to measure how well we’re doing in school.

For Montana, the average ACT score has been hovering around "20" for years, with a reassuring 98% of students taking the test. Sound low? When compared to the national average, it’s actually right in line, as the national average is a score of 19.5.

What about the SAT? Montanans are averaging a score of 1193, with only 5% of the student population having taken it. Don't worry, though: the national average for the SAT is a score of 1028, so although we aren't leading the pack, we certainly aren't struggling to keep up.

As for state assessments, The Montana Comprehensive Assessment System (MontCAS) evaluates students in mathematics and English language arts. Recent results show stable proficiency rates, with slight improvements in certain districts. In other words, slight improvement was found, but mostly stayed the same.

Summed Up: Montanans are still holding their own in the testing game, with no dips or peaks and keeping at or slightly above average. No signs of a collective brain meltdown here.

Literacy Rates

If Montanans are really losing brainpower, you’d expect a drop in literacy, right? Bad news for doomers: according to the U.S. Department of Education's National Assessment of Adult Literacy, in 2020 Montana boasted an adult literacy rate of approximately 90%, slightly above the national average. That's about the same as the percentage of adult literacy for Montana in 2003, when the population was over 300,000 people less than what we have now.

And as for the kids? Hard to say, as the publicly available data on statewide IQ assessments is very limited. However, educational and psychological services report no significant changes in cognitive assessments over recent years, so yay?

Summed Up: Most Montanans can still read.

External Factors

Alright, let’s step away from the numbers and look at the bigger picture. Is there something in the Montana water? Is the economy making people forget basic math? The short answer: Nope.

Economy: Montana’s economy is actually doing pretty well, especially with booms in tech, tourism, and agriculture. More money means better schools, which means smarter kids—or at least, that’s how many think it’s supposed to work...

Policy: The government has been throwing money at education and improving teacher training, especially in rural areas. However, some districts in the state have reported limiting budgets and constraints. So, not great, but could be a lot worse.

Population: Sure, more people are moving to Montana, but it’s not exactly throwing the education system into chaos. As mentioned above, even with the huge population boom, the numbers involving education assessments have relatively stayed the same. Also, proponents argue that this influx can diversify educational needs but has not negatively impacted overall educational metrics.

Summed Up: External factors appear to support, rather than hinder, cognitive and educational development in Montana.

Conclusion

So, are people in Montana really getting dumber? Based on all the evidence, the answer is a pretty clear “nope.” Graduation rates are steady, test scores aren’t dropping, literacy rates are solid, and experts aren’t clutching their pearls in panic. In fact, if anything, Montanans are holding their own or even getting a little smarter in some areas.

We can all laugh at the idea of a "Montana brain drain," but the data says otherwise. Honestly, it begs the question as to why people keep asking this question in the first place.